The EU and Russia are in a tug of war over Moldova.

Two main factors have damaged the pro-western camp in the country.

The country has been subjected to an extraordinary amount of blackmail by Russia.  Russia has banned imports of Moldovan wines, meat, and vegetables. Russia has also threatened to cut off Moldova’s energy supplies.  The new trade accords with the EU should give reformers the impetus to introduce structural changes in the economy, provided there is sufficient political will to do just that. But reforms would take time to kick in.

The government in Chişinau has adopted a tough stance against the Gagauz community. Observers warn that this could alienate the minority even further, and with the support from Moscow, Chişinau could have a major separatist movement on its hands.

Indeed, in a referendum carried out among the Gagauz minority in February 2014, 97.2 percent voted against Moldova’s closer ties with the EU, and 98.4 percent favored Moldova’s integration into the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union.

The leader of the Gagauz region, Mihail Formuzal, who was a major in the Soviet army, has repeatedly opposed Moldova moving closer to the EU. He has claimed such a development would threaten the autonomy of the Gagauz minority.

With a frozen conflict in Transnistria and Russia’s support for the Gagauz, Moldova’s future stability is not a foregone conclusion. This time around, the EU cannot afford to be caught napping-as it was over Ukraine.