Recent developments  show that Turkey is poised to continue regressing in terms of EU standards. New security legislation, for example, that the government is preparing to introduce is considered to be draconian and highly restrictive in terms of individual rights.

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu claims that the proposed legislation complies with EU standards, but critics in Turkey and Europe reject this and say it will not only set Turkey’s reform process back, but will also harm Ankara’s ties with the EU.

Another potential problem is Erdogan’s desire to turn Turkey into a presidential system. General elections planned for June are critical in this respect. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) wants results that will enable the party to alter the constitution on its own and enable Erdogan to become an executive president who is unencumbered by checks and balances.

Erdogan’s commitment to the political criteria necessary for EU membership is already under question.  Many recall his asking Russian Presiden Pitin in November 2013 to admit Turkey to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to save it from the slow and painful EU accession process.

On the European side of the equation, key EU members, most notably France and Germany, have been less than welcoming as far as Ankara’s membership bid is concerned, arguing that Turkey is not a European country and should therefore not be given full membership.

France has even blocked chapters of Ankara’s membership negotiations that pertain to full membership. Meanwhile, Cyprus, as a veto-wielding EU member, continues to block key chapters in Turkey’s membership talks in an effort to try and solve the Cyprus problem according to its national interests.

Turkish opponents of EU membership use these developments to argue that Ankara should ditch the EU and look elsewhere for strategic partners. Erdogan’s remarks about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization also emboldened them in this regard. Looked at superficially, such views appear justified.

Some influential Turkish voices, however, starting with former President Abdullah Gul, sense a red herring here. Gul has always supported the view that the EU perspective is important, as it is a positive force for reforms in Turkey.

Influential voices in Europe underline Turkey’s vital importance for Europe and continue to canvas for Ankara’s membership bid.

The EU Commission’s 2014 Progress Report also stressed Turkey’s vital strategic location in terms of developments in the Black Sea region and the Middle East, and recommended deepening the cooperation between Ankara and the EU in a host of areas of concern to both sides.

Historically speaking, Turkey’s bid for EU membership has been looked on with suspicion and derision in the Middle East, the prevalent belief being that this is the clearest indication that Ankara has turned its back on its Islamic heritage.

But, with the Arab Spring having gone seriously wrong, the example of a secular and democratic Turkey with an EU perspective is expected by many analysts to gain importance in the region again. This will, however, require a Turkey that returns to the path of reforms, rather than giving the appearance of drifting away from the EU.

Put another way, Ankara will have to overcome the impression in Europe that it is part of the mess in the Middle East, as Italy’s Deputy Foreign Minister said during the conference organized by TUSIAD and the Brookings Institution.