Japan’s Deflation

The Bank of Japan’s unprecedented stimulus and Abe’s pro-growth reforms have yet to spur a recovery in inflation and gross domestic product growth, and the country is yet again in recession. Worse, BOJ Governor is rapidly running out of weapons in his battle to eradicate Japan’s “deflationary mindset.”  Many of the staff at the BOJ think the central bank has already gone too far to weaken the yen and buy virtually every bond in sight. That’s a problem for Kuroda, the BOJ Governor,  and Abe in two ways.

First, board members warned that the costs of further monetary stimulus outweigh the benefits.

Second, maintaining stability in the bond market just got harder. The only way 10-year yields — currently 0.44 percent — can be stopped from spiking is by making ever bigger bond purchases. But fellow BOJ board members will be giving Kuroda less latitude to cap market rates.

Japan is lucky in one way: Given that more than 90 percent of public debt is held domestically, Tokyo can the avoid wrath of the “bond vigilantes.” Kuroda further neutralized these activist traders by saying there’s “no limit” to what he can do to make Abenomics work. The fact that so many of his colleagues are skeptical of the policy, however, undermines Kuroda’s credibility. If markets begin to doubt his staying power, yields are sure to rise.

The answer, of course, is for Abe to get more serious about deregulating the economy; that was the thrust of Kiuchi’s dissenting vote last month. Unfortunately, progress on Abe’s so-called third-arrow reforms is set to slow as Tokyo stops all business to contest a Dec. 14 election. The vote could well leave Abe with a smaller mandate for change than he won in 2012. Whatever the margin, though, the prime minister needs to act faster to increase competitiveness. Or Abe ay be voted out.

 QE

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