Measuring Economic Growth

Kemal Dervis sees different measure in the future.  Economic growth is going to slow in developed and emerging economies, in part because technological development will slow.   New technologists however argue that technology will bring us to the fourth industrial revolution with robots and intelligent machines making huge productivity increases possible.

If capital is becoming a substitute for all but the most highly skilled labor, and educational institutions are having a hard time training enough highly skilled workers for the future, the inequality between the highly trained and all other labor will worsen.

Climate change and natural resources constraints may also impede long term growth.

As these issues move to the top of policy agendas, growth defined as aggregate GDP and calculated on accounts invented a century ago may become less and less relevant.

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