Trade is More than Trade

Robert Samuelson writes: The trouble with our trade debates is that people assume they’re only about economics. Since World War II, U.S. trade policy has also been a pillar of U.S. foreign policy. In the early postwar decades, America encouraged trade with Europe and Japan — allowing more of their exports into the United States — as a way of achieving our political goals. Trade would build their prosperity, and their prosperity would promote democracy over communism.

“There was a confluence of security and economic considerations,” says Harvard political scientist Jeffry Frieden.  U.S. officials recognized that “giving [our allies] access to the American market was a lot cheaper than foreign aid.” Besides, U.S. economic superiority was taken for granted. Before the war, U.S. and German chemical companies had been rivals. “By 1945, we didn’t have to worry about the German chemical industry,” he says.

It’s true, as Frieden notes, that this consensus weakened in the 1970s. Once Europe and Asia rebuilt, their exports — of steel, shoes, televisions, cars — threatened U.S. jobs. The Reagan administration pressured foreign governments to impose “voluntary” limits on some exports to the United States. Still, the pursuit of political ends by economic means remains at the core of U.S. trade policy.

All this provides context for the controversy over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the trade negotiation among 12 countries (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam). Together, these nations represent almost 40 percent of the world economy, with the United States and Japan accounting for about four-fifths of that.

Negotiations cover many issues. Japan has tariffs of 600 percent or more on rice. Presumably, these would be reduced or eliminated. Although the average trade-weighted U.S. tariff is 1.4 percent, there are exceptions. U.S. tariffs on shoes range from 11 percent to 70 percent; Vietnam wants them curbed. Talks also involve less traditional issues: limits on subsidies to state-owned companies; patent protection, especially for drug companies; rules governing where computer data must be stored.

Still, plausible economic gains from expanded trade seem modest. By 2025, the incomes of the 12 countries could increase by 0.9 percent, according to a revised estimate by a study for the Peterson Institute. In today’s dollars, that would be about $320 billion (the U.S. share: $85 billion). By contrast U.S. GDP is approaching $18 trillion, and global GDP is quadruple that. The fuss over the Trans-Pacific Partnership seems disproportionate to the stakes.
TPP