Semih Idz writes: The friendship between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin clearly bolsters the positive atmosphere between the two countries. It is, however, no secret that mutual economic interests provide the driving force for Turkish-Russian ties today.
Dark clouds have nevertheless started gathering over economic relations because of Russia’s economic woes. These are worrying the Turkish business community.
The downturn in Russia comes at a time when the two countries pledged, during Putin’s Dec. 1 visit to Turkey, to increase the volume of bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2020.
Putin also said Moscow was scrapping the new pipeline to carry Russian gas to Europe over Bulgaria, and would build an alternative pipeline to Turkey.
For good measure, Putin also threw in a 6% discount in the price of gas sold to Turkey, leaving Ankara with smiles all around.
Western sanctions on Russia had also whetted the appetite of Turkish exporters after Ankara — to the annoyance of its NATO allies — made it clear it would not support the sanctions.
The shopkeepers of Istanbul’s Laleli, Osmanbey and Merter districts joined those with raised hopes, expecting an increase in the traditional and semi-official “suitcase trade” in textiles, leatherwear and cosmetics with small Russian buyers who come to Turkey for this purpose. Meanwhile, Turkish industrialists hoped to reap the advantages of the drop in the price of Russian oil.
Prospects for the lucrative tourism sector appear glum, as the number of Russians visiting Turkey is expected to fall. Russian tourists, who generally prefer Antalya on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast and resort towns close to it, leave an estimated $4 billion to $5 billion annually. .
Enver Erkn, an expert with the ALB Menkul brokerage firm, points out that Russia is Turkey’s No. 1 import market (mostly buying oil and gas) and fourth export market. Erkan says that while the drop in the price of Russian oil is a positive development for Turkey, Russia’s deepening economic crisis is not.
Agriculture, which is vitally important for the Antalya region, was suffering from the crisis in Russia. Russia is the main market for Turkey’s fruit and vegetables. Because of the drop in buying power and the devaluation there our agricultural exports have also affected.Warning Turkish contractors not to leave Russia now because their places would be filled by Chinese companies, Karlov, a Russian minister said that if Turkish operators were concerned about the fall in Russian tourists, the solution was in their hands.
