Impact of US-EU Trade Deal and No Customs on Turkey:
- Turkey’s exports will increase 7% if it is given the opportunity to sell tariff-free goods to the United States.
- Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease by $4 billion if it is excluded from the US-EU free trade agreement.
- If Turkey is allowed to join the pact, its GDP will increase by $31 billion. If including the $4 billion loss that would be avoided, the total benefit would reach $35 billion.
- The US-EU agreement is expected to boost prosperity by 2.6%-9.7% in EU countries and by 13.4% in the United States. In Switzerland, Canada, Mexico and Turkey, if excluded from the agreement, prosperity will decrease by 3.75%, 9.48%, 7.24% and 2.5%, respectively.
The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment partnership is expected to be signed in 2017 at the latest. It will re-draw the global economic map. Turkey is terrified of the consequences if it does not become part of the deal. The customs deal will apply to turkey because of deals signed in 1996. But good from Turkey will not be customs free in the US.
Turkey’s eventual EU membership is only a distant prospect, Ankara is left with two options: negotiating an independent free trade agreement with the United States or persuading the EU to have Turkey included in the TTIP.
